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MBS Day Ahead: Revisiting the ADP vs NFP Correlation

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The stated goal of the ADP Employment Report is to predict the final revision of the US government's non-farm payroll number. Assessing its efficacy was a tall order before covid and has been a relatively foolish endeavor since then. So let's get foolish (relatively)! Warning: the following charts are pretty hard to follow. I haven't conceived a better way to present the data post-covid, so the y-axis has been chopped off in most cases where huge covid-related numbers would have otherwise crushed the rest of the data series down to a flat line. "Takeaways" won't necessarily jump right off the screen. Then again, that's sort of the thesis here: ADP employment data sometimes does a great/terrible job of predicting the NFP data. First up, here's a simple chart…(read more)

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