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MBS Day Ahead: Converging Risks Making Bonds Indecisive

Posted To: MBS Commentary

In late July, bonds rode a wave of momentum toward lower yields with many traders targeting the 1.25% zone in 10yr Treasuries. That floor was broken on Monday July 19th. The rally extended to 1.128% before bouncing moderately. Another attempt was made in the week before last, but 1.128% held firm again. Heading into last week's bond market supply, yields spiked, but bounced firmly at the 1.37/1.38% technical level. These juxtaposed bounces make decent sense. After 4 months of rallying and a break of the 1.25% target, it was no surprise to see rally momentum stall out. It was just as logical to see sellers shy away from a more aggressive move higher given the recently lackluster econ data, increasing covid concerns, and the passing of a heavy dose of supply. We're now in a period of…(read more)

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