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MBS Week Ahead: Stable Start Says Bonds Still Have a Chance

Posted To: MBS Commentary

If bonds needed an excuse to move up and out of their lowest range since February, last week's jobs report provided enough of an opportunity for sellers to test the waters. The fact that we're seeing modest gains at the start of the new week means the decision has not yet been made. Data will provide a bit of guidance. Any outsized strength or weakness in the Treasury auction cycle will provide a bit more. When it comes to data, the calendar is limited, with CPI being the only bigger ticket event (core, y/y seen at 4.3% vs 4.5% previously). That'll be out on Wednesday morning with the week's most important Treasury auction (10yr) following that afternoon. If bonds haven't tried to stage a big break above 1.30% by then, it would speak to a certain open-mindedness about the…(read more)

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