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MBS Day Ahead: On Guard Against Another Defensive Friday

Posted To: MBS Commentary

As bonds have recovered from the high yields seen in March, the tendency has been for rally weeks to end with a bit of defensiveness on Fridays. This is most common on the week or two following a break below prevailing technical resistance. In other words, yields had been struggling to break through a certain floor, and if they subsequently broke that floor and rallied further, the week of the breakout would see a pull-back. The body of evidence is limited to only 3 obvious examples, but the pull-back has happened in roughly the same way every time. If early trading is any indication, today is off to a similar start, but there really aren't any implications beyond the intraday time frame. It would actually be a bullish turn of events to see yields simply hold under 1.36%. In fact, considering…(read more)

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