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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Testing Various Technical Boundaries

Posted To: MBS Commentary

After Wednesday's respectable rally, we may as well give up the search for too much discrete causality in the bond market. While we can definitely observe connections in the short term to individual events, technicals and tradeflows have been just as relevant and they tend to play out less predictably in terms of timing and ground-covered. 10yr yields successfully defended against a break above a ceiling at 1.424 and moved fairly quickly back to the next technical zone underfoot. This could be seen as anything from 1.34 to 1.38, but we've been using 1.36 in our "key levels" list. As of this morning, bonds were also able to make a case for new breakouts–both of the short-term uptrend (yellow lines) and of 1.36. In so doing, they've moved to test the pivot point at 1.30…(read more)

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