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Moment of Truth For Rates and Housing

Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch

This week’s 6.4% reading on Q1 GDP reinforced the notion of a strong economic recovery. In turn, the recovery helps to justify the sharp move higher in rates seen during the same 3 months. Rates managed to recover quite a bit in April, but ended up rising slightly this week, by some measures. Is the intermission over? The following charts offer several ways to look at the intermission (basically April’s push back against the previous 3 months of significantly higher rates). Mortgage rates have outperformed other parts of the bond market even though they remain highly stratified by loan type and investor. As such, the intermission looks healthy at first glance. The 10yr Treasury yield (the quintessential benchmark of broad longer-term rate momentum) does a better job of showing this week’s modest…(read more)

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