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MBS Day Ahead: Trying to Set a New Thursday Trend

Posted To: MBS Commentary

2 weeks ago, we talked about 2021's Thursday curse . It was finally broken last week . Today's early gains mean we may be looking at a second consecutive winning Thursday for bonds, but we'll reserve judgment until the close. Even if yields end up lower, the significance of any rally is limited without a break below 1.62% (10yr). After that, 1.58+ is an equally important floor. Remaining above those levels isn't necessarily bad. It just means that the departure from 2021's rising rate trend is taking a more consolidative (sideways) approach (which is the higher probability outcome in the first place). What has happened in the past when rates have embarked on similar consolidations? Here are the most relevant examples: But in fairness to the current move, it's already…(read more)

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