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MBS Day Ahead: New Month, New Hope, But High Bar For Confirmation

Posted To: MBS Commentary

March's month/quarter-end trading got more credit than normal for moving markets in the past week or two. As such, it's fair to hope for April to bring a push back in the other direction. So far, so good this morning, but we'll need to see more gains tomorrow and probably even at the beginning of next week to confirm. One key reason for that is the early market closure tomorrow for Good Friday and the Easter holiday weekend. There is a risk that some of the gains today are being driven by traders exiting positions before liquidity gets tighter tomorrow. Still, a rally is a rally, and it gives us an opportunity to talk about what "confirmation of a friendly bounce" might look like. The most basic metric would simply be to cover a certain amount of ground. In that sense…(read more)

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