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MBS Day Ahead: Clear Reaction to Presidential Debate, But There's a Catch

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There has been an uncanny amount of sideways momentum in the bond market for months. The range has grown even narrower over the past 3 weeks with this week being the narrowest in decades (since February 15th, 1991 to be exact. This isn't pictured on the following chart due to scaling constraints). Reasons for the range-bind are well understood and frequently discussed. The bigger of the two–general uncertainty and strongly assumed economic impact related to the pandemic–has no set timeline, but in any case isn't expected to be resolved any time soon. The smaller of the two–election uncertainty–at least has the benefit of being tied to a relatively concrete timeline . While the election is still more than a month away, last night brought the first real opportunity for markets to…(read more)

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