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MBS Day Ahead: A Brief History of Bonds' Break-Up With Econ Data

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Remember simpler times when following interest rate movements meant waiting for economic data to come out and counting on logical, repeatable, predictable impacts? For instance, today's Existing Home Sales report has always fallen somewhere in the lower rungs of the market movement echelon, but even then, a big deviation from the consensus was still worth a bit of movement in the implied direction (i.e. weaker data would help bonds a bit and stronger data would hurt). That almost certainly won't be the case today–nor has it been the case for a vast majority of economic reports recently. Defining "recently" is a matter of debate as well. The econ data correlation breakdown has been in its most glorious heyday since coronavirus became a thing, but it was nearly as prevalent…(read more)

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