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MBS Day Ahead: After Last Week's Victory, Bonds Are Already Facing a New Challenger

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Any conversation about momentum, victory, or defeat in the bond market must be prefaced with the acknowledgment that we're dealing with what would historically be a very narrow range that's very close to record lows. In other words, there's no drama here in the bigger picture . Nonetheless, it's always good to be vigilant about threats to our nice little low rate utopia. The ridiculous volatility seen in March was the first major threat to the new low rate regime, but I hesitate to even count it. March was all about a unique breakdown in liquidity, fueled by broad-based market panic surrounding an unprecedented input (covid/quarantines). It wasn't until June that we saw the next threat. At the time, markets were willing to entertain an earlier-than-expected V-shaped economic…(read more)

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