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MBS Day Ahead: Let's Clarify Mortgage Rates "Reconnection" to Bonds

Posted To: MBS Commentary

I talked yesterday about rates "reconnecting with the bond market," and that's an assertion that needs some more clarification on several levels. By way of background, the original disconnection refers to rates remaining much higher than MBS or Treasuries suggested they should be in the wake of March's massive market volatility. At the time, I said mortgages would only slowly return to a healthier spread versus bonds, and that the spread had likely sustained some semi-permanent damage due to covid-related mortgage market issues. I make it a point to remind you that there are no gurus when it comes to predicting the future of rates. I will continue to make that point as it relates to whether rates will be higher or lower at any point in the future. After all, that's what…(read more)

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