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MBS Day Ahead: Classic Technical Breakout Paints Clear(er) Picture For Bonds

Posted To: MBS Commentary

There is a ton of uncertainty about rates and the economy in the bigger picture. That uncertainty jives with a broad sideways trend in an all-time low range. But be aware, if we're truly talking about the big picture and broad ranges, most professional bond market pros have a much wider range in mind than the average mortgage market pro. In terms of 10yr yields, the range of 0.5 to 0.8 jumps right off the page- -perhaps with some overrun to 0.95 as long as it's as temporary as it was in early June. If market participants are resigned to such as sideways range in the bigger picture, we are resigned to following trends that emerge INSIDE that range. While that's not as much of a high stakes game as taper tantrums or trade wars (or the initial onset of the covid rally, for that matter…(read more)

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