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MBS Day Ahead: Time For Non-Farm Payrolls, A Report That Used To Matter

Posted To: MBS Commentary

No other piece of scheduled monthly economic data has a better track record of influencing the bond market than nonfarm payrolls. There are stretches of multiple consecutive months where it has arguably been responsible for setting the trading tone for the entire month. It began to lose its potency as a market mover when the labor market got "boring" in 2016-2019. Unemployment was so low and job creation was so steady that traders would have needed to see several successive months of surprising job losses before betting on anything other than a continuation of the bulletproof labor market. Then came covid, and the US economy lost more jobs more quickly than at any other time in history. Suddenly, the jobs report had a chance to be relevant again as it might serve as an indicator of…(read more)

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