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MBS Day Ahead: The Case Against Mortgage Rates And a Note on Today's GDP

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Let's get the housekeeping out of the way first. With so much talk in the news about the coronavirus effect on GDP, I figured I'd point out that today's -5.0% result is for Q1. Financial markets are much more interested in Q2's data, and even then, GDP isn't necessarily the first place investors look for an indication of the economy. It's more of an 'evening news' type of indicator whereas ISM PMIs and NFP are for traders. Speaking of traders, whether we're talking about equities or debt, the average investor is currently taking part in the "if all goes according to plan" coronavirus bounce. This involves a gradual correction for bonds and a faster-paced correction in stocks after the ridiculous period of volatility seen in March and early April…(read more)

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