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MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Starting Out Stronger

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The bond market had been very flat with yields near all time lows since mid-April. If there was any predisposition toward strength or weakness during that time, it was modest skew toward higher yields. Nonetheless, 0.74% was tested several times as a ceiling and wasn't officially broken until June 4th. Notably, by moving higher at that point, yields were also breaking up and out of the uptrend we'd been following since April. The technical breakout contributed to a quick move higher with the 10yr spiking to nearly 1.0% 2 weeks ago. Then last week saw a strong move back in the other direction with yields as low as 0.649%. That move also restored yields to their uptrend (marked by the yellow lines in the chart below). As of this morning, bonds are yet again making the case to return to…(read more)

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