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MBS Day Ahead: Trends in Treasuries and Mortgage Rates Are in Conflict

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Yesterday, after 4 straight days of improvements, the bond market easily returned to the trading range that had been intact for 6 weeks (until it was broken by last week's big selling spree). But are yields returning to a flat range, or one that is slightly upwardly sloped? An upward slope would make plenty of sense assuming a gradual recovery of the economy and labor market following the unprecedented contraction driven by the coronavirus response. Last week's data fueled additional belief in that recovery narrative and rates rose faster. Now this week, we've seen covid-related concerns increase due to several large states reporting higher and higher numbers. At the same time, the Fed gave the bond market what it was looking for by firmly committing to a baseline amount of bond…(read more)

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