MBS Day Ahead: Will Fed Week Save Bonds?
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Bonds are coming off their roughest week in months with yields rising at their quickest pace since the mega-volatility seen during the panicked sell-off in March 2020. Before that, we'd have to go back to October 2019 (the initial bounce from the trade war rally) to see anything comparably bad. Adding to the gravity of the situation is the fact that yields had been so sideways for the past 6 weeks. The juxtaposition would seem to indicate that bonds were in a holding pattern while they deliberated over the timing and pace of an economic recovery with the big jump higher in rate marking a verdict. In other words, 10yr yields held so faithfully under the .74 and .79 ceilings that these became the dividing lines between the depths of the covid-19 economic impact and everything else. Last week's…(read more)