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MBS Day Ahead: How Data Can Move Markets Even When It's Not Supposed To

Posted To: MBS Commentary

It's the first Wednesday of the month and thus time for ADP Employment data. The stated intention of this report is to predict the final revision of the official nonfarm payroll (NFP) count in the big jobs report that follows 2 days later. Because of its connection to NFP, ADP payroll data has been a very big market mover at times. But because NFP counts and revisions have often defied logic , ADP (which is arguably in a much better position than the US government to keep a timely and accurate finger on the pulse of payrolls) has also been called into question in terms of relevance. Despite that, a BIG beat or miss in the ADP data has always been worth something to the bond market–at least during times where the bond market is tuned in to payrolls counts. Now today, we have the biggest…(read more)

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