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MBS Day Ahead: Rising Rate Trend Intact, But Motivation is Required

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fairly gentle pace in the bigger picture. Even then, such trends are by no means crystal balls. At best, they can provide some lines on either side of whatever road we're currently on. With that in mind, we'd reached the lower end of the range last Thursday and had begun to bounce by Friday. Now this week, the first two trading days are confirming the bounce (unless today's losses fade). The reassuring part of today's weaker performance so far is that it has required some specific motivation. In other words, bonds haven't moved to higher yields simply because this trend says they are supposed to. In today's…(read more)

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