MBS Day Ahead: This is About To Happen. Here's Why Bonds Don't Care

Posted To: MBS Commentary

The Employment Situation (the big jobs report out today) is the single most important piece of economic data on any given month–at least it normally is. On average, no other report has the same ability to cause volatility and momentum in the bond market. On so many past occasions, NFP (the "nonfarm payrolls" component of the report, and its most important feature) has single-handedly caused a shift in market psychology that dominates the rest of the month. In a few minutes, something similar to the following chart will be the result of today's data: So with such an important report and such a big move, surely we're going to react in a big way, right? Actually, no–at least not because of the NFP number itself. Markets are already well aware of the huge toll on jobs taken…(read more)