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MBS Day Ahead: Temporary Weakness Or Bigger-Picture Resistance?

Posted To: MBS Commentary

Despite being in a narrow range in the bigger picture, 10yr Treasury yields have generally been moving moderately higher since April 21st. MBS have managed to avoid a similar trend, but they haven't managed to break above their best levels from the same week. To make matters somewhat more disconcerting , they just broke below their supportive trend-line from the past 2 weeks. Are we witnessing a bigger picture shift or just some temporary trepidation? As we discussed yesterday, the notion of " supply " is central to the current bout of bond market weakness. Supply can take many shapes. The most directly relevant form is that of new Treasury debt hitting the market. While we don't have any new auctions this week, there is the matter of Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement…(read more)

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