MBS Day Ahead: Lots of Data to Digest. Will it Matter?
Posted To: MBS Commentary
There's no question that financial markets have done a great deal to price-in the anticipated economic impact of coronavirus, but have they done enough? And will it be the simple release of new econ data that provides clarity? Today may be one of our first real chances to see if it's not too soon to begin looking for a normal reaction function in the data. Retail Sales is the headliner and it's expected to be quite weak. Here's how the chart would look if the forecast holds true. 45 minutes later, industrial production numbers are expected to show a similar drop, though not well past 2008 lows like Retail Sales. Builder confidence is expected to hold its ground a bit better, although this may be more a factor of the economic models feeding the forecasting tools. It's hard…(read more)