Articles

MBS Day Ahead: Data Doesn't Matter? Oh, It Will…

Posted To: MBS Commentary

This morning's ADP Employment showed a loss of 27k jobs. Forecasts called for a loss of 150k jobs compared to last month's report that was strongly positive at +183k. Normally, when ADP or NFP job counts beat their forecast by more than 100k jobs, it's enough to prompt at least a little bit of bond market weakness (i.e. higher rates), even in the recent era where jobs counts weren't that big of a deal. And it's a big deal for me to say ADP/NFP are not a big deal because they have historically been very big deals. In fact, there is no bigger deal in the economic data world than NFP (the non-farm payrolls component of the big jobs report). If it hasn't been a big deal for the past however many years, it's because the labor market has been so stable and strong . Almost…(read more)

Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.


Leave a Reply