Europe Taketh Away. Europe Giveth

On a week without much by way of domestic econ data and the biggest ticket market mover being Thursday’s European Central Bank announcement, it’s no surprise to see European bonds having an outsized impact on Treasuries.  While everything has been contained well within last week’s range, Monday and Tuesday saw EU bonds leading yields higher.  Early trading on Wednesday completely erased those losses. 

At first glance, credit goes to Italian political drama, palatable inflation reports, Ukraine-related uncertainty, and pre-ECB positioning all made bigger by light volume and liquidity.  Whether it’s due to the ECB, Ukraine, or anything else, the correlation between equities and bond yields also adds to the “positioning” narrative.

In the bigger picture, everything we’ve perceived as volatility in the short term is simply an increasingly narrow trading range.  If you had to put a label on it, the easiest observation is that yields are homing in on the 3.0% psychological/technical level.

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